Forecasting Purpose Data Analysis and Methodology Comparison of Neural Model Perspective
نویسندگان
چکیده
The goal of this paper is to compare and analyze the forecasting performance of two artificial neural network models (i.e., MLP (multi-layer perceptron) and DNN (deep neural network)), and to conduct an experimental investigation by data flow, not economic flow. In this paper, we investigate beyond the scope of simple predictions, and conduct research based on the merits and data of each model, so that we can predict and forecast the most efficient outcomes based on analytical methodology with fewer errors. In particular, we focus on identifying two models of neural networks (NN), a multi-layer perceptron (i.e., MLP) model and an excellent model between the neural network (i.e., DNN) model. At this time, predictability and accuracy were found to be superior in the DNN model, and in the MLP model, it was found to be highly correlated and accessible. The major purpose of this study is to analyze the performance of MLP and DNN through a practical approach based on an artificial neural network stock forecasting method. Although we do not limit S&P (i.e., Standard&Poor’s 500 index) to escape other regional exits in order to see the proper flow of capital, we first measured S&P data for 100 months (i.e., 407 weeks) and found out the following facts: First, the traditional artificial neural network (ANN) model, according to the specificity of each model and depending on the depth of the layer, shows the model of the prediction well and is sensitive to the index data; Second, comparing the two models, the DNN model showed better accuracy in terms of data accessibility and prediction accuracy than MLP, and the error rate was also shown in the weekly and monthly data; Third, the difference in the prediction accuracy of each model is not statistically significant. However, these results are correlated with each other, and are considered robust because there are few error rates, thanks to the accessibility to various other prediction accuracy measurement methodologies.
منابع مشابه
Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks: an Application of Multi-Model Data Fusion technique
Floods are among the natural disasters that cause human hardship and economic loss. Establishing a viable flood forecasting and warning system for communities at risk can mitigate these adverse effects. However, establishing an accurate flood forecasting system is still challenging due to the lack of knowledge about the effective variables in forecasting. The present study has indicated that th...
متن کاملForecasting Job Burnout among University Faculty Members of Yazd Payame Noor University Using Artificial Neural Network Technique
Background: Faculty members are one of the main factors in the higher education system, that high level of occupational stress caused by educational, research, and executive duties makes them exposed to burnout. The purpose of this study is Forecasting burnout of faculty members of Yazd Payame Noor University using artificial neural network technique. Methods: The present research is descripti...
متن کاملWhich Methodology is Better for Combining Linear and Nonlinear Models for Time Series Forecasting?
Both theoretical and empirical findings have suggested that combining different models can be an effective way to improve the predictive performance of each individual model. It is especially occurred when the models in the ensemble are quite different. Hybrid techniques that decompose a time series into its linear and nonlinear components are one of the most important kinds of the hybrid model...
متن کاملComparative Study of Static and Dynamic Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting of Tehran Stock Exchange
During the recent decades, neural network models have been focused upon by researchers due to their more real performance and on this basis, different types of these models have been used in forecasting. Now, there is a question that which kind of these models has more explanatory power in forecasting the future processes of the stock. In line with this, the present paper made a comparison betw...
متن کاملA Review of Epidemic Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks
Background and aims: Since accurate forecasts help inform decisions for preventive health-careintervention and epidemic control, this goal can only be achieved by making use of appropriatetechniques and methodologies. As much as forecast precision is important, methods and modelselection procedures are critical to forecast precision. This study aimed at providing an overview o...
متن کاملSteel Consumption Forecasting Using Nonlinear Pattern Recognition Model Based on Self-Organizing Maps
Steel consumption is a critical factor affecting pricing decisions and a key element to achieve sustainable industrial development. Forecasting future trends of steel consumption based on analysis of nonlinear patterns using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques is the main purpose of this paper. Because there are several features affecting target variable which make the analysis of relations...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Symmetry
دوره 9 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2017